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Estimating Pitch Counts (July 2, 2003)

Posted 9:09 a.m., July 2, 2003 (#2) - Mike Moffatt (homepage)
  I had a couple problems with the analysis.

1. The author mentioned the problem with multicollinearity between Runs and Earned Runs (obviously). What about multicollinearity between Hits and Walks and Earned Runs. What about Hits, Walks, Strikeouts, and Earned Runs. The T-stats were pretty high, indicating that it's probably not a problem, but I would have liked to seen him regress each X against the other X's, so we could see the extent of their relationships.

2. The author compares R^2 values from two different functional forms (linear and non-linear). Because the functional forms are different, the comparison is meaningless.

Mike

Fanhome's Dackle: World Series Odds (September 18, 2003)

Posted 5:08 p.m., September 18, 2003 (#17) - Mike Moffatt (homepage)
  If you compare these numbers to what the market thinks, there is quite a difference. I took the market values at TradeSports (and scaled them so all the probs=100) and compared it to this list. It's a lot different:

TEAM MARKET DACKLE
MLB.YANKEES 23.2 16.6
MLB.GIANTS 15 21.9
MLB.BRAVES 13.8 24.8
MLB.ATHLETICS 12.48 14
MLB.REDSOX 11 7.8
MLB.ASTROS 4.84 2.6
MLB.CUBS 5.04 2.2
MLB.TWINS 4.3 3.3
MLB.MARINERS 2.46 0.3
MLB.WHITESOX 2.1 0.1
MLB.PHILLIES 2.2 3.5
MLB.DODGERS 0.48 0.1
MLB.DIAMONDBACKS 0.24 0
MLB.CARDINALS 0.36 0
MLB.BLUEJAYS 0.08 0
MLB.FIELD 2.4 3

To me the market makes more sense, just from a "sniff test" point of view. I can't see the AL only having a 40% chance of winning when they're the home team.

Cheers,

Mike